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Australia: The Land Where Time Began |
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Antarctic Climate Change During the Last Interglacial and Local Orbital
Forcing
The climate of the Antarctic region changed during the last interglacial
before that of the Northern Hemisphere. According to Kim et
al. large local changes in
precession forcing could have produced this pattern if a rectified
response in the cover of sea ice had occurred. When a coupled sea
ice-ocean general circulation model was tested for 3 intervals around
the last Interglacial the results supported this hypothesis. It is
suggested that such a mechanism may play an important role in
contributing to phase offsets between climate change in the Northern and
Southern hemispheres for other intervals.
One of the problems in climatology of the
Pleistocene
involves the factors responsible for climate change in Antarctica. The
processional component of orbital forcing is almost out of phase with
between the Northern Hemisphere and the Southern Hemisphere, though
variations in orbital insolation play a major role in driving climate
changes in the Pleistocene (1), so any conditions that favour glaciation
and deglaciation in the Northern Hemisphere should result in the
opposite response in the Southern Hemisphere. It has been known for more
than 20 years is that though cooling in the Southern Hemisphere during
the Pleistocene accompanies glaciation in the Northern Hemisphere,
Southern Hemisphere climate led climate in the Northern Hemisphere into
and out of the last, as well as other, glaciations. I.e., the Southern
Hemisphere warmed and cooled before the Northern Hemisphere (1). Before
the glacial retreat in the Northern Hemisphere carbon dioxide also
increased (2). Yet it is rare for standard explanations for climate
change in the Southern Hemisphere to focus on local changes in forcing
around Antarctica. According to Kim et
al. most explanations involve
processes that are more remote such as changes the atmospheric
concentrations of CO2 (3), changes in North Atlantic Deep
Water (NADW) transport of
heat to the Antarctic (4),
or the lowering if sea level leading to expansion of the Antarctic ice
sheet. There is, however, a modest contribution of about 1oC
from the mean annual changes in the local radiation budget at the
highest latitudes as a result of synchronous Northern
Hemisphere-Southern Hemisphere obliquity changes at the 41,000 year
period (5).
In this paper Kim et al. show
that local forcing at the precessional period (19,000 and 23,000 years),
which is out of phase between the Northern Hemisphere and the Southern
Hemisphere climate changes. The study of Kim et
al. was based on the
hypothesis that seasonal changes in the Antarctic summer may be more
important, proportionally, than in the Antarctic winter because sea ice
is much closer to the freezing point in summer. This relation may allow
a rectified response to variations in orbital insolations and may
account for some of the phase offsets in climate change between the
Northern Hemisphere and the Southern Hemisphere. Their model was tested
with a coupled sea ice-ocean general circulation model (OGCM).
Kim et al. used the Hamburg
Ocean Primitive Equation (HOPE) model (6), which is based on the
primitive equations, with a prognostic free surface (7). Based on the
Arakawa-E grid (8), the equations are discretised, and the model has
horizontal resolution of a 3.5o x 3.5o, with 11
vertical layers. Included in the model is a comprehensive
dynamic-thermodynamic sea ice model (9). Climatological monthly mean
winds force the ocean (10), apart from the sea ice of the Southern
Ocean, which is forced by daily winds from the European Centre for
Medium Range Weather Forecast analyses. The treatment of the temperature
of the surface and salinity is dependent on the presence of sea ice. In
grid cells that are ice free, sea surface temperature and salinity are
relaxed to air temperature (11) and salinity (12) that are prescribed.
Kim et al. used a linear
version of a linear version of an energy balance model (EBM) (13) in
order to obtain the surface temperature response to the change in
orbital insolation in the Pleistocene. The temperature response to
seasonal insolation forcing as it is modified by geography by the EBM,
which is a 2-D model. It is indicated by many sensitivity experiments
(14) that its response to orbital insolation changes is approximately
the same as that of atmospheric general circulation models, though the
EBM is a simplified model. Kim et
al. chose 3 time periods: 106 ka and 125 ka, at which local summer
insolation is at a minima (15), and 135 ka, at which the local summer
insolation was at a maximum. These time intervals were chosen because
the CO2 and temperature increased before the Northern
Hemisphere ice sheet melted (2,16), and temperature then decreased
before the ice growth in the Northern Hemisphere (1). In the Southern
Hemisphere the mid- to high latitudes cooled almost as much as the as at
the glacial maximum at 106 ka. It is suggested by earlier linear EBM
calculations that the local orbital forcing could play an important role
in phase shifts and seasonal cooling for these time periods, though in
order to translate the forcing into mean annual temperature changes,
such as are estimated for the Vostok site (17), some feedback would be
required.
In the Southern Hemisphere summer is the time when the EBM temperature
response occurred. In January at about 80oS, simulated
temperature at 106 ka and 125 ka where about 3.9oC and 1.8oC
lower than at present, respectively, whereas at 135 ka the temperature
was about 1.4oC higher than at present. These temperature
differences were imposed by Kim et
al. on the climatological
atmospheric forcing of sea ice-ocean model in order to investigate the
change in the area covered by Antarctic ice and the overturning
circulation. In order to isolate the mid- to high latitude response of
the Southern Hemisphere to changes in orbital insolation the temperature
changes were imposed only south of 45oS. The model reached a
quasi-steady state after 600 years of integration; i.e., at all model
levels the climate drift in temperature and salinity was within the
range of 0.01oC and 0.001 psu per century.
At present the area covered by sea ice in the Antarctic varies from
about 4.5 x 106 km2 in the austral summer to 17 x
106 km2 in the austral winter. In the model the
mean annual area of Antarctic ice increased by 3.2 x 106 km2
and 1 x 106 km2, respectively, and at 135 ka it
decreased by about 1.1 x 106 km2. In the austral
summer, October to April, the largest difference occurred, with a change
of +80%, +40%, and -40% for 106 ka, 125 ka ND 135 ka respectively. It is
indicated by model time series (19) that there is a systematic offset
from the control run in the area of sea ice; i.e., the differences do
not appear to reflect model drift or centennial variability. A mean
annual cooling was also obtained for this region in a coupled model run
(20), though the full (global) orbital insolation change was used in
that experiment for this time interval.
Changes also occurred in the thermohaline circulation that was modelled.
The intrusion of Antarctic bottom water (AABW) across the equator is
about 12 sverdrups (1 Sv = 1 x 106 m3/sec), which
is close to the flow that was obtained in a previous model study (21)
and it compares well with recent estimates (22,23). The formation at the
present of NADW (36 Sv) is overestimated by the model verses recent
estimated from sections that were observed (27 Sv) (23), though at 30oS
overflow of NADW (19) is 17 Sv, which is realistic. The intrusion of
Antarctic Bottom Water increased by 3.3 Sv for the 106 ka simulation,
while North Atlantic Bottom Water production decreased by 1.2 Sv.
Intrusion of the Antarctic Bottom Water increased by 1.5 Sv at 125 ka
and decreased slightly by 0.6 Sv at 135 ka. The largest change in the
deep Antarctic outflow is recorded by the Pacific Basin, though this
response is suggested by Kim et
al. to possibly model dependent.
Geochemical data has been interpreted as an indication that variations
in the North Atlantic Deep Water contributed to meltback of Antarctic
sea ice during terminations (4). The role of North Atlantic Deep Water
in terms of forcing Southern Hemisphere climate has been challenged
(24). It is suggest by the results of the study by Kim et
al. that the changing outflow
of deep water from the Antarctic could change the relative abundance of
the northern component water at any particular site, which leads to
potential interpretations of past variations of the North Atlantic Deep
Water.
The results of Kim et al.
therefore support the hypotheses that the response of the sea ice to
local changes in Milankovitch forcing could affect both the timing and
magnitude of climate change in the Southern Ocean. Modelled changes in
sea ice could also affect concentrations of CO2 (25), which
would then further modify sea ice (3). At about 130-135 ka this latter
response might be particularly relevant to the early rise in CO2,
though additional feedbacks would be required to amplify the modest
response obtained by Kim et al.
for this time interval. E.g., weaker winds in the Southern Ocean (26),
that are caused by reduced sea ice should decrease loss of heat from the
ocean (27) and increase sea surface temperatures. Kim et
al. suggest these problems
would have to be addressed with models that are fully coupled, which at
present do not simulate high latitude climates in the Southern
Hemisphere well (28) and are too computer-intensive to be used for a
series of quasi-equilibrium sensitivity experiments.
Kim, S.-J., et al. (1998). "Local Orbital Forcing of Antarctic Climate
Change During the Last Interglacial." Science 280(5364):
728-730.
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18. This is slightly overestimated over passive microwave
observation [P. Gloersen et al., Arctic and Antarctic
Sea Ice, 1978–1987
(Scientific and Technical
Information Program, NASA, Washington, DC,
1992), p. 290], which shows that the Antarctic sea
ice varies from ;2 3 106 km2 in austral summer to
;15 3 106 km2 in austral winter.
19. S.-J. Kim, T. J. Crowley, A. Sto¨ ssel, data not shown.
20. M. Montoya, T. J. Crowley, H. von Storch, Paleoceanography
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28. J.-S. von Storch et al., J. Clim. 10, 1525
(1997); a
climate drift also occurs in the National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics
Laboratory–coupled model [S. Manabe and R. J.
Stouffer, ibid. 9, 376 (1996)], but the reason has not
been identified.
29. Supported by NSF grants OCE96-16977 and ATM
95-29109 and funding from Texas A&M University.
19 December 1997; accepted 16 March 1998
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Author: M.H.Monroe Email: admin@austhrutime.com Sources & Further reading |