Australia: The Land Where Time Began

A biography of the Australian continent 

Projected Timing of the Departure of Climate from Recent Variability

The time frame over which climates change beyond historical analogues critically determine disruptions, ecological and social, by modern climate change. In this paper the authors¹ present a new index of the year when it is projected the mean climate of any given location moves to a state which is continuously outside the historical bounds of variability under various greenhouse gas emission scenarios. This index has a global mean of 2069, ± 18 years s.d., for the air temperature near the surface under emissions stabilisations scenario and 2047, ± 14 years s.d., under a scenario of 'business-as-usual', based on 1860-2005 as the historical period. It is expected that unprecedented climate change will occur earliest in the tropics among low-income countries, and will highlight global biodiversity and the limited capacity for governments to respond to the climate change impacts. According to the authors¹ their findings shed light on the urgency with which greenhouse gas emissions need to be mitigated if climates that are potentially harmful to society and biodiversity are to be prevented.

Sources & Further reading

1. Mora, Camilo, Abby G. Frazier, Ryan J. Longman, Rachel S. Dacks, Maya M. Walton, Eric J. Tong, Joseph J. Sanchez, et al. "The Projected Timing of Climate Departure from Recent Variability." Nature 502, no. 7470 (10/10/print 2013): 183-87.